x~~~~x~~~~x~~-~ BEGIN San Diego 1:02 PM October 14, 2010 ~~x~~~~x~~~~~-~~~x~~~-~
When Indies can't compete, the majors cheat.
GAS - Buy, Buy, Buy, Buy
DIESEL - Buy, buy, buy, buy
OUR PREVIOUS PREDICTION:
We said gas prices would climb climb from two-point-five to seven-point-five cents for RUL, and up 1 to 5 for diesel.
Prices will climb three to eight cents this weekend. Less for diesel, but still up.
WHAT HAPPENED: Exactly what we predicted.
Gas prices climbed 6.1 cents on average while diesel climbed almost 2 cents.
COMMENTS ANALYSIS: When Indies can't compete, the majors cheat.
Refinery glitches are still keeping prices high, plus the EIA revised its annual assessments for benchmark crude. When the EIA speaks, traders listen, especially when it revises the numbers up for crude oil. The new EIA "Guesstimate" for 2011 is that oil prices will average $83 a bbl. This new higher price has contributed to long term fears about a weak dollar, which tends to support higher oil prices.
In addition, the rack inversion between Independent dealers and branded dealers has widened. An average independent dealer is paying 5 to ten cents more per gallon than a brand-name dealer at the wholesale level. This means that the Indies can't compete. And when the Indies can't compete, the majors are free to cheat. Our prediction: prices will climb.