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UCAN's Official 4-Day Gougecast

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OUR PREVIOUS PREDICTION:   On Thursday, we said gas prices would slide below $3 within 36 hours with a chance of a slight rebound by yesterday (Monday). This prediction proved to be correct. Most stations cut prices, but a few independently owned gas stations had to beef up their razor thin margins by raising prices.

TODAY'S PREDICTION:   Prices will go down for gasoline by Friday morning, but no more than two cents.  Prices for diesel will dip no more than a penny but are also likely to increase one to two cents by Thursday

ANALYSIS:

Oil prices are on the rise this week, but more importantly, wholesale prices are up two to three cents. This means that any cost-cutting will be at the dealer's expense. They can still cut the fat, but right now the short term trend is up on the wholesale level, down at the retail level.

In some respects, when the industry crosses a major dollar barrier, it is like Caesar crossing the Rubicon - it is very hard to turn back, but right now, the crossing is not decisive - at least 45% of all stations are still priced above the $3 mark and it is in the best interest of California's refineries to keep the average above $3.

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UCAN Surveys show the following Southern California Averages:

    Monday  Thursday Monday 
CHANGE 9/13/2010 9/9/2010 9/6/2010
(0.0046) San Diego RUL 2.996 3.001 3.018
(0.0043) San Diego DSL 3.165 3.169 3.169
(0.0180) Los Angeles RUL 2.986 3.004 3.018
0.0120 Los Angeles DSL 3.217 3.205 3.208
(0.0140) Orange Cnty RUL  2.983 2.997 3.009
(0.0090) Orange Cnty RUL  3.146 3.155 3.163
(0.0220) San Bern RUL 2.961 2.983 2.988
(0.0080) San Bern DSL  3.151 3.159 3.156

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